NATO Conducts First Military Aviation Mission Over Finland, Risking Russian Response
Will today's historic mission be viewed by Russia as a provocation?
History was made over Finland today as NATO conducted its first military aviation mission over Finnish airspace. The U.S. RC-135W flew along the shared border with Finland, which is the longest of any country in the European Union. It remains to be seen how Russia will react to this move.
The decision to allow NATO military operations in Finnish airspace came as a result of an initiative to expand military capabilities and technology in space called the Alliance Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS).
Finland's accession protocols to NATO have been ratified by all allies except for two - Hungary and Turkey. These countries have opposed Finland's accession due to security concerns, including the potential provocation of increased conflict with Russia. Given the assurances prohibiting NATO's eastward expansion at the fall of the Soviet Union, there are legitimate concerns about the risks of Finland's accession to NATO.
However, Turkey changed its stance last week following hours of talks between NATO members and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan before a summit in Madrid. Although Turkey's long-standing request for F-16's was reportedly not part of the negotiations, Erdogan expressed his intentions to press US President Joe Biden on the matter while in Madrid. Hungary may also change its stance, as the upcoming vote of their legislature is likely to ratify due to support for Finnish accession from the current ruling party.
The possibility of NATO expanding to include Ukraine was one of the key factors in Putin's decision to launch the military operation in early 2022. Many, including myself, who had an eye on NATO activity anticipated the invasion almost a month in advance due to the response given to Russia's draft agreements in December '21. The potential consequences of NATO encroaching on Russia's EU-border are limitless.
The parting words of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin following a state reception at the Kremlin may be worth considering in regard to the possibility of a Third World War:
"Right now, there are changes," began Xi Jinping as he departed the Kremlin, "the likes of which we haven't seen in 100 years."
It was just over a hundred years ago when the First World War wreaked havoc on the world. The global geopolitical order was entirely reconfigured, and the stones were laid on the path to World War II. Perhaps worst of all, the First World War commenced what was arguably the most significant decline in Western culture since the fall of Rome.
-The Shultz Report by M. Shultz