West Africa's Uncertain Future: Will ECOWAS Invade Niger?
Tensions linked to Niger's recent coup d'état carry the potential to redefine West Africa as yet another arena in the ongoing battle for international power.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is an alliance of West African nations initially formed as an economic organization focused on collaborating with various Western powers (mainly France and the United States) to further regional development. Over the years however ECOWAS has become increasingly involved in military affairs. There have been military interventions in countries such as Sierra Leone, Liberia, and five other African states via ECOWAS’s military arm ECOMOG (the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group). None of these interventions were pre-approved by the UN Security Council.
As for the developing situation in Niger following the recent ‘coup-velution’’ Abdel-Fatau Musah, a top ECOWAS official, recently stated that the alliance will likewise not seek approval from the UN Security Council for a potential intervention in Niger. On one hand, this is logical as member-states of the Security Council such as Russia and China would almost certainly block a motion for a military intervention in Niger as it would undoubtedly draw both nations into the conflict due to existing security agreements throughout the region and could potentially turn West Africa into yet another theatre for a proxy war between the global south and Atlantic forces.
There is still time for leaders in West Africa to come to a peaceful resolution and it is certainly in the world’s interest that they do. However, there is a significant chance that French economic motives (as the nation is accustomed to benefiting from the flow of Niger’s many natural resources) and the Cold War-style paranoia of the United States regarding Chinese and Russian influences in Africa, could forcefully escalate the situation into an all-out conflict.
It’s vital to understand how devastating such a conflict could be for the region and the global economy. While the U.S. state department is clearly confident in the military might of the West, it’s far from clear that such confidence is warranted. The conflict in Ukraine has seriously depleted the military resources of Europe and North America, and both regions lack the capacity for production they’ve historically possessed. Another fact is the commitment of the Wagner Group, the Russian private military company (PMC), to the transitional government in Niger. Regardless of personal perspectives on the Wagner Group and its controversial leader, Prigozhin, the group has proved itself to be a formidable military force. With such details in mind, a conflict in West Africa is certain to be bloody, if it were to occur.
Our world is stuck in a cycle of fake diplomacy and power posturing. Interestingly enough, it seems that it is the West - through its control over regional organizations such as ECOWAS - that is fortuitously exposing the weakness of current global power structure. While such revelations could potentially push for much-needed reforms in international governing bodies, the possibility of a devastating conflict resulting in innumerable civilian casualties is likely the more probable outcome.
The global response to the situation unfolding in West Africa, whatever it may be, lies largely in the media. Honest investigations into the perspectives of all sides of the conflict are sure to reveal to the global public the devastating consequences of imperialist power structures that deprive individual nations of their sovereignty and right to self-governance.
-The Shultz Report by M. Shultz